| Author(s) | Friedrich Engels |
|---|---|
| Written | 26 February 1890 |
ENGELS TO LAURA LAFARGUE[1]
AT LE PERREUX
London, 26 February 1890
My dear Laura,
Since last Thursday evening when the telegrams announcing victory came raining in here thick and fast, we are in a constant intoxication of triumph, brought, provisionally at least, to a climax this morning by the news that we had obtained 1,341,500 votes, 587,000 more than 3 years ago. And yet—next Saturday[2] the orgy may begin again, for the stupe- faction of all Germany at our success is so enormous, the hatred against the Kartell[3] swindlers so intense, and the time for consideration so short that fresh successes, as unexpected as those of last Thursday, are quite possible, though I for one do not expect many of them.
The 20th February 1890 is the opening day of the German revolution. It may be a couple of years yet until we see a decisive crisis, and it is not impossible that we have to pass through a temporary and severe defeat. But the old stability is gone for ever. That stability rested on the super- stition that the triumvirate Bismarck, Moltke, William, was invincible and all-wise. Now William is gone and replaced by a conceited Gardelieutenant? Moltke is pensioned off, and Bismarck is very shaky in his saddle. At the very eve of this election, he and young William had a squabble over the latter's itching to play the working men's friend; Bismarck had to give way and took care to let the philistine know he had done so; he himself evidently wished for 'bad' elections, in order to give his master a lesson. Well, he has got more than he bargained for, and the two have made it up again for once. But that cannot last. The 'Second old Fritz[4] only greater', cannot and will not stand leading by the chancellor's hand, in Preussen muss der König regieren[5] —this he takes au sérieux, and the more critical the time, the more divergent will be the views of these two rivals. One thing is certain to the philistine: the man he can trust is losing his power, and the man who holds the power, he cannot trust. Confidence is gone even among the bourgeoisie.[6]
Now look at the state of parties. The Kartell[7] has lost a million votes, has had 2Vi milliions for, AV2 against itself. That ministry of Bismarck's parliamentary power has gone to smash, and all the King's horses and all the King's men cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again. To form a government majority, there are but two parties: the Catholics (centre[8] ) and the Freisinnigen.[9] The latter, although already burning with the desire to form a fresh cartel, cannot do so—as yet at least—with the Conservatives, but only with the National Liberals,[10] and that gives no majority. The Centre? Bismarck reckons upon it, and the Catholic Junkers of that party are eager enough to unite with the old Prussian Junkers. But the sole raison d'être of the Centre is hatred of Prussia, and just you try and make a Prussian government party out of that! As soon as the Centre becomes anything like that, the Catholic peasantry—its force—break loose, while the 100,000 votes the Centre had less (against 1887) have been taken away by us in the Catholic towns, see Munich, Cologne, Mainz, etc.
So this Reichstag is unmanageable. But Bismarck's last resource, a dissolution, will hardly help him. The confidence in the stability of things being gone, the supreme factor now is the discontent with the oppressive taxes and increasing dearness of living. That is the direct consequence of the fiscal and economic policy of the last 11 years, and by this Bismarck has driven the people right away into our arms. And Michel is rising against that policy. So the next Reichstag might even be worse.
Unless—Bismarck and his master—on this point they will always agree—provoke riot and fighting and crush us before we are too strong, and then alter the constitution. That is evidently what we are drifting to, and the chief danger to be avoided. Our people, you have seen, keep excellent, wonderful discipline; but we may be forced to fight before we are fully prepared—and there is the danger. But when that comes on, there will be other chances in our favour.
Nim's dinner bell—so good-bye for to-day—more about your dogs in more peaceable times—also about Paul's articles.
En attendant, vive la révolution allemande[11]
Ever yours
F. E.