| Author(s) | Karl Marx |
|---|---|
| Written | 31 May 1873 |
To Engels in London
[Manchester,] 31 May 1873
25 Dover Street
DEAR FRED,
Have just received your letter which edified me greatly. However, I shall venture no judgment until I have had time to reflect on the matter and consult the 'authorities'.[1]
I have been telling Moore about a problem with which I have been racking my brains for some time now. However, he thinks it is insoluble, at least pro tempore, because of the many factors involved, factors which for the most part have yet to be discovered. The problem is this: you know about those graphs in which the movements of prices, discount rates, etc., etc., over the year, etc., are shown in rising and falling zigzags. I have variously attempted to analyse crises by calculating these UPS AND DOWNS as irregular curves and I believed (and still believe it would be possible if the material were sufficiently studied) that I might be able to determine mathematically the principal laws governing crises. As I said, Moore thinks it cannot be done at present and I have resolved to give it up FOR THE TIME BEING.
The French catastrophe[2] was welcome in so far as it involved disgrace for Thiers and his lickspittles; but unwelcome since, if it had gone the other way, I might have hoped to see various individuals removed from London soon. Moreover, I regard any violent catastrophe now as UNTIMELY both from the viewpoint of the interests of France and from our own.
Nevertheless, I am by no means convinced that the événement[3] will result in a restoration. The RURALS[4] had undoubtedly reckoned with some sort of revolt in Paris, Lyons and Marseilles, and especially in Paris. In that event they would have come down hard, some of the radical Left would have been arrested, etc., in short it would have led to a situation which d'une manière ou d'une autre[5] would have had to end in a restoration, and quickly at that.
Bonaparte himself, in his attempt to carry out his coup d'état, i.e. to bring it to a conclusion, found himself paralysed the very first day by the merely passive resistance of the Parisians, and he knew full well that if that were to last another 6-8 days the coup would be lost and lost irretrievably. Hence the signal to go ahead with gruesome murders in the boulevards, etc., sans provocation aucune[6] to improvise a terreur.[7] Mr Morny in particular, the real MANAGER, has since spoken very candidly about this planned operation, whose author he had been.
For that, however, the Rurals lacked the PLUCK; and they could only have had it if they had had one pretender instead of three. Their hope was rather the opposite one: that events would force them to stop acting like Buridan's ass.[8]
Now that they find themselves, in contrast, in a purely parliamentary situation, the row is flaring up again in their own ranks. Each hopes to gain the support of as much of the nearest faction, SAY, FOR INSTANCE, THE LEFT CENTRE, as would be necessary to enable him to dispense with his rivals. However, as far as MacMahon is concerned, in my judgment, the worthy fellow will never take any action on his own initiative. There is also another factor that must hasten the dissolution of this amalgam. The only thing that formally binds them together is God, i.e. Catholicism. The more impetuous and 'honest' people on the Right will absolutely insist that the Ministry should show its colours to the Pope[9] and Spain,[10] and it seems to me that, quite apart from any inner reluctance to do so, the need to consider Mr Bismarck's feelings must prevent any step in that direction. However, the Jesuit fathers who have actually directed the entire strategy of the Rurals up to now, including, i.a., that old bag, MacMahon's wife,[11] will not let themselves be fobbed off so simply. In such a situation the National Assembly might easily witness just such a swift changement de décoration[12] as took place recently. After all, it was only the SHIFTING of 9 votes that made the homme nécessaire[13] impossible, a thing which, incidentally, disproves Hegel's view that necessity entails possibility.[14]
The day before yesterday I went to see Dronke in Southport. He has become exceedingly fat, which does not suit him. While there I saw par accident Strauss' book Der neue und der alte Glaube, loaned to him by a German philistine. I leafed through it, and it really is proof of the great weakness of the Volksstaat that no one there has put this damned priest and Bismarck-worshipper (who gives himself such airs vis-à-vis socialism) in his proper place.
This afternoon I am going to Buxton with Moore, so that I shall be out of the way until Monday.[15] As soon as I have seen Gumpert, I shall return. Just lazing-around and idling has done me a world of good.
Enclosed a letter from Tussy. In the letter the child received from me[16] I said to her that her last letter had greatly reassured me, etc.; her reproach that I was unjust towards Lissagaray was unfounded. I asked nothing of him but that he should provide proof instead of words that he was better than his reputation and that there was some good reason to rely on him. You can see from the reply how the homme fort[17] proceeds. The damned nuisance is that I must be very circumspect and indulgent because of the child. I shall not answer until I have consulted you on my return. Keep the letter by you.
Schorlemmer has just arrived. He cannot accompany Moore and me because Roscoe is unwell and this is the period for preparing for exams.
Schorlemmer read your letter[18] and says that he is essentially in agreement with you but reserves his judgment on points of detail.
MY COMPLIMENTS TO MRS LIZZY.
Your K. M.