| Author(s) | Friedrich Engels |
|---|---|
| Written | 22 July 1870 |
ENGELS TO MARX
IN LONDON
Manchester, 22 July 1870
Dear Moor,
Three cheers for Kugelmann! It is obvious that he did not go to school for nothing. His hypothesis is very much in the spirit of the protagonists and explains everything.[1] If it is correct in actual fact, then Bismarck at least has bitten off more than he can chew. Those worthies have obviously managed to set off a full-scale national war in Germany. The numerous tâtonnements[2] with regard to the cession of German territory, Luxembourg, etc., by which means Louis Bonaparte tried, as usual, to accustom the public in advance to the approaching fait accompli, have had quite the opposite effect on ordinary Germans. They have obviously made up their minds this time to put a stop to all such tricks once and for all. This being so, and considering the attitude of the two armies and of stubborn old William,[3] a pretend-war is not possible. On ira au fond[4]
The sudden vacillation and uncertainty evident in the French operations—obviously planned for the middle of this week—is proof that Louis Bonaparte realises how badly he has miscalcu- lated. The swift intervention of the South Germans and then the certainty that he will have the whole German people on his hands has frustrated the attempt to launch a surprise attack on Mainz with his artillery and then to form a spearhead in the direction of Würzburg, with no more than half his forces mobilised. If he can now attack at all, he will have to deploy all his forces. But there's still time for that. The order to form the fourth regimental battalions did not go out before the 15th or 16th. Their units consist of four companies of the three field battalions of each regiment, so they must first be increased to 6-8 companies and supplemented by reserves. The men on leave were called up in Paris on the 19th and 20th, the trained reserves on 21 and 22 July, and the untrained reserves receive their papers tomorrow. The regiments will not be complete until the first two categories have joined them. And this means that—skirmishes apart—the campaign will have to be delayed to the middle of next week at the earliest. By then, however, the Germans may be so strong that Bonaparte will find it necessary to await the fourth battalions, and that means a delay of another 8-14 days. And by then he'll be fou tu[5]
Yesterday I was told by a local German philistine that he had been travelling on a train in Westphalia last Saturday with a Prussian general who had taken him for an Englishman and had spoken to him in English. He said: *'It is true enough, we are about ten days behindhand, but if during ten days you do not hear that we have suffered a great defeat, we shall soon have your sympathies.'* On being asked what he meant, he said: *'The sympathies of the English, you know, are always on the side of success.'*
Mobilisation began on the 16th in Northern Germany and on the 17th in Bavaria. The reserves and Landwehr[6] infantry can be at the ready in about 8 days and the rest will be available about 13 days from the start of mobilisation. That means that the entire infantry will be ready on the 25th and everything else on the 30th. But since the reserves are joining up in great numbers without being ordered to, the field army will be ready even sooner. It is certain that the 7th, 8th, 11th and 12th army corps are standing on the Rhine. The Guard has also left Berlin, as I hear from Borchardt who arrived from there yesterday. I suppose it is on its way to Bavaria to serve under the handsome Crown Prince.[7] The transport of troops from the East through Berlin was due to begin yesterday. From Sunday or Monday on Bonaparte will be able to occupy the Palatinate at the most, but he will no longer be able to cross the Rhine unless the other side makes crass errors. From the end of next week the Germans can attack and start an army rolling towards France that will smash everything Bonaparte can put in its way, albeit after fierce battles. As things stand at present, I do not believe that the campaign can possibly end well for Bonaparte.
I suppose I would like to write 2 articles weekly on the war for The Pall Mall Gazette for good cash payment.[8] I shall do a trial piece on military organisation. 3-4 guineas per article ought to be right; the Guardian[9] used to pay me 2 guineas and would have paid even more.[10] If you can arrange that tomorrow, let me know right away. To go to the Prussian headquarters as a correspondent has all sorts of drawbacks, the chief one being called Stieber, and besides I would have a less criticial vantage-point there than here.
You can see from the enclosed cuttings what we have been engaged on here. The Guardian report is by us[11] ; what a PENNY-A-LINER makes of it is shown by the accompanying report from the Courier—enough to make you die laughing. It must be the first time that French workers have been fanatically applauded by German philistines and shop-assistants in Manchester.
I have written to Dupont and intend to see him this evening. Where do you plan to go to the SEASIDE? South of the Humber there is nothing on the east coast. To the north there is Scarborough — dear and crowded, and Bridlington Quay. If you decide on the latter, we could meet there. I shall send you the £40 as soon as you wish.
I wish the damned panic would abate somewhat; I need to sell some SHARES.
I have saved Rosier up for later.[12]
The last issue of Wilhelm's Volksstaat has not reached me.[13]
Particularly annoying at the present time.
Best greetings to you all from Lizzie and myself.
Your
F. E.
Kugelmann returned herewith. Did you read how Bonaparte is now flirting with the Marseillaise and the noble Thérésa[14] gives a performance of it every evening with her grosse voix de sapeur[15] ?
The Marseillaise sung by Thérésa—that is the spitting image of Bonapartism. Ugh!