| Author(s) | Friedrich Engels |
|---|---|
| Written | 18 September 1868 |
ENGELS TO MARX
IN LONDON
Manchester, 18 September 1868
Dear Moor,
I think you will not be able to enforce the intended exclusion of Eccarius from the congress; he will be indispensable, as a delegate too. Apart from this, it is very good, however, that he does not get away with this, and that there are various people WHO WILL WASH HIS HEAD, as Lafargue says.
As regards the advertisement (annonce) about your book,[1] it is absurd to claim that you could not write it yourself. You even wanted to write it yourself when I sent you one that you did not like.[2] Be so kind as to return to this matter, and send me the advertisement you promised me then. I shall then pass it on to Meissner. But we shall have to support him somewhat so that his good will does not weaken.
In puncto[3] money I shall write to Borkheim willingly as soon as you inform me that he is back. Apropos this matter, you must, however, let me know what happened when you drew the loan. For how much did you insure your life, at what premium, and is the policy still valid? Because it might still be possible to get a new loan or an advance on the policy itself from the same society. But how am I to raise money for you if you leave me quite in the dark about all these matters? If I can reach agreement with Gottfried Ermen, who will scarcely return before the end of October, I shall immediately be able to raise some funds once again, but everything depends on this. If I can not reach agreement with him, my own position will become very uncertain. It can, however, take until the end of this year before the matter is settled, and this means another 3 l/2 months.[4]
William the Handsome[5] is getting exuberant now that his Bismarck has left him.[6] The drive towards war is becoming ever clearer. For all that, I believe it is now too late for this year. Purchasing horses and the actual mobilisation still require more time in France than in Prussia, and despite all the preparations and bragging I do not believe that the French need less than 6 weeks for this. As the domestic supply of horses is insufficient, the beginning of the actual mobilisation, that is to say, now, the firm decision to strike, will inevitably be marked by large purchases of horses abroad, which immediately becomes public knowledge. Even now it will be a long time before they can have the entire number of horses necessary for war. Little Louis[7] will have to give 5-6 weeks NOTICE, and this brings us to the end of October; and especially with the enormous masses now involved, a winter campaign would certainly only be waged in an extreme emergen- cy. If there are not quite special reasons, we are pretty safe until March-April, and all sorts of things can happen before then.
In addition, Louis still does not have anything like the number of men he needs. He will hardly be able to raise more than 650,000 troops of the line (gendarmerie, garde municipale and all sorts of other police troops figure in the army budget), and much of the garde mobile does not even exist on paper. It takes at least 6/7 years to fully implement a changed military system, and his is only one year old. I do not believe that Louis wants a war precisely at this moment, if he can avoid it, since every month of delay brings stronger reinforcement to his forces than to those of Prussia.
I hope Laura is well again? Best greetings.
Your
F. E.