| Author(s) | Friedrich Engels |
|---|---|
| Written | 9 July 1866 |
ENGELS TO MARX
IN LONDON
Manchester, 9 July[1] 1866
Dear Moor,
History, i.e., world history, is becoming ever more ironical. What could be more splendid than that Bonaparte should be thus mocked in practice by his pupil Bismarck, who, backwoods junker as he is, has suddenly outgrown his master and all at once gives the whole world a tangible demonstration of how very much this
arbitre de l'Europe exists ON SUFFERANCE. And then this Bismarck himself, who, in order to be able to govern to all appearances feudally and absolutely for a few months at home, is pursuing the policy of the bourgeoisie WITH A VENGEANCE abroad, preparing the ground for the bourgeoisie to rule and striking along paths where progress is only possible by liberal, even revolutionary means, and, in so doing, making his own backwoods junkers be daily at variance with their own principles. The presenters of the ceremonial shield to Francis Bombab are in alliance with Garibaldi, and the advocates of Thrones by the grace of God go swallowing up whole countries in spite of Victor Emmanuel! Never has there been anything quite so splendid as the Kreuz-Zeitung[2] in these last 4 weeks, and the historico-feudal party, which cost the genius of Frederick William IV of blessed memory so much toil and trouble to found, is now choking on the filth which it is being forced to gobble up at its own leader's command.
The simple fact is: Prussia has 500,000 needle-guns and the rest of the world not even 500. It is not possible to equip an army with breech-loaders in under 2, 3 or perhaps 5 years. Until then Prussia will be dux. Do you think Bismarck will not make use of such a moment? Certainly he will. Bonaparte will take very good care not to pick a quarrel, and as for the Russians, it is true they are setting up a most furious howl in the Journal de St.-Pétersbourg,[3] but militarily they are now less to be feared than ever. I have no doubt at all that this sudden enormous growth of Prussia's might will drive Bonaparte and the Russians together, and that their first endeavour will be to prevent each and every increase in Prussia's might. But they will take care to hold back from war; as for France, if she were to intervene actively, that would assuredly be the best way to drive the South Germans properly into the arms of the Prussians and consign the civil war to oblivion.[4] And as for the Russians, Monsieur Bismarck is the man to threaten them with a new Polish insurrection, and they know that the fellow is unscrupulous enough for that. In general, Bismarck is only too well aware of his power and also knows that it can only maintain its present magnitude for a few years, and I believe he will exploit it to the very last drop. Moreover, Bonaparte can always be bought off with Belgium in the end, and only just before the war Goltz, Bonaparte and the Crown Prince of Holland[5] 'considered the possibility' of dividing Belgium between France and Holland, which would then cede Luxemburg to France.[6] I believe the war is not over yet by a long chalk, and there is much that can still happen.
The Russians really do seem to have realigned themselves towards Austria some time ago now, and this tremendous success of the Prussians will make it impossible for them to go back on it in any way. The more so since Austria will now be ready to receive Bosnia or Walachia in exchange for Venice, with Russia then taking Moldavia.
You see, by the by, how right I was in my appraisal of the Prussian army when I repeatedly said there was far more to it than people were wont to admit. After these successes and after the absolutely brilliant performance of the troops, they will be so much more self-confident and, at the same time, more experienced at war that they could take the field against the French tomorrow, even if the latter had breech-loaders, and the French bayonet, at all events, has had its day, like the Spanish pike in its time. When breech-loading becomes general, the cavalry will come into its own again.
I must make a proper report to Jenny about the Africans,[7] as I have been meaning to for a long time now.
Many regards.
Your
F. E.